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Expected value is a mathematical estimate based on the probability you enter. It does not validate that estimate or guarantee a profit.
How it works
Before entered costs, expected value per Yes share is your probability estimate minus the entry price.
Related tools
Price and Probability Calculator · Position Size Calculator
Use the result in context
Read a market page before relying on a number
Check the exact question, resolution rules and available market activity before using a calculator result for a real-world decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a positive expected value guarantee profit?
No. It is a mathematical estimate based on the probability you enter, not a result forecast.
Why compare my estimate with market price?
The comparison makes your assumption explicit, but it does not prove that your probability estimate is correct.